Crop Report

MALTING BARLEY UPDATE - APRIL 2010

At last the weather forecasters are predicting a period of warm dry weather throughout UK which will allow growers to complete spring plantings and get on with fertilizer and herbicide applications, all of which have been seriously delayed by the long cold winter and early spring which saw snow return to Scotland with a vengeance last week. Planting of spring barley in England is now virtually complete, up to 8 weeks later than usual in some parts.  In Scotland planting is far from complete, but with modern equipment and the good forecast progress will be rapid.  As the area available to be planted with spring crops is considerably reduced compared with last year, the delays will not have had much impact on growers planting intentions. 

 
Crop 2010 Areas
DEFRA survey of areas sown @ 1^st December 2009 – ‘000ha 

As previously reported winter wheat and oil seed rape plantings have increased significantly.  The area sown to winter barley has fallen as winter malting barley prices have proved unattractive to growers who have either dropped the crop or switched from malting to feed varieties. With increased grower interest in spring wheat, spring oil seed rape, linseed and even fallow it will not come as a surprise to see a dramatic reduction in UK spring barley plantings particularly in England. 

UK spring barley plantings and production – ‘000ha / ‘000 tonnes

The reduction in UK spring barley plantings is mirrored in the major spring malting barley producing countries throughout the EU.  Yields are also forecast to be reduced in some countries reflecting bumper yields last year and later planting this year. 

EU spring barley plantings and production – ‘000ha / ‘000 tonnes 

 All spring data from COCERAL (March 2010) 


Crop 2010 Development and Varieties
Despite the later than normal planting dates in England, early crop development is good on all but the heaviest soils. Plentiful supplies of soil moisture and rising temperatures should all crops develop quickly and catch up with growth stages.  In Scotland, with a lot of planting still to do, there are no adverse reports. 

With a late sowing season and consequent late farmer purchases of seed (and increased use of farm saved seed), it is difficult, as yet, to find any definitive data on varietal split.  In England all the signs are that Tipple will dominate plantings, to a level not seen since the heyday of Optic, it is possible that up to 70% of the plantings could be Tipple, with Quench (both grown for malting and feed) and Westminster at around 10% each.  The new introduction Concerto may have 5% market share with Optic around the same area.  No Cocktail will be sown, but a small area of the newest variety Propino will feature. 

In Scotland consumers would like to see a reduction in Oxbridge and an increase in Optic or the newer varieties Belgravia, Concerto and Forensic, however availability of seed of the newer varieties and a large quantity of farm saved Oxbridge will mitigate against much change in the varietal split compared to 2009.


Crop 2010 Market
EU prices have moved down and then upwards since the last report influenced, in varying degrees by, buying interest from major brewers and maltsters, concerns over plantings ( both area and delay) and continual surplus of crop 2009 barley.  Depending on shipment period UK / Danish spring barley is bid €130 FOB basis October.  Domestic UK prices are around £108.50 delivered maltings for harvest movement (but very few growers prepared to sell at this level) increasing to £116/117 for January/March 2011.  UK winter malting barley prices are unquoted but normally valued at £5 below spring varieties. 

The market will remain slightly nervous until plantings are complete and crops are developing, thereafter growing conditions (drought / flood etc) will influence the market until we finally get to harvest.

Bob King
Great Ryburgh
21^st April 2010